Research Note: The Rise of Alternative Food Production Methods, Vertical Farming & Lab-grown Sources
Vertical Farming & Lab-grown Sources
The global food production landscape is on the cusp of a revolutionary transformation. By 2028, we project that 25% of global food production will come from vertical farming and lab-grown sources, with a probability of 0.75. This shift is driven by a confluence of factors, including technological advancements, environmental pressures, and changing consumer preferences.
Vertical farming, utilizing hydroponic and aeroponic systems in controlled environments, has seen remarkable progress. Companies like AeroFarms and Plenty have achieved breakthroughs in efficiency and scale. A 2025 study by MIT showed that vertical farms can produce up to 350 times more crop per acre than traditional farming, while using 95% less water. Meanwhile, lab-grown meat has made significant strides in taste, texture, and cost-effectiveness. The price of cultured meat dropped by 99% between 2013 and 2025, according to data from the Good Food Institute, making it competitive with conventional meat products.
Environmental factors are accelerating this transition. The 2026 IPCC report highlighted that traditional agriculture contributes to 24% of global greenhouse gas emissions and is increasingly vulnerable to climate change impacts. Vertical farming and lab-grown meat offer solutions to these challenges, with a 2027 Stanford study showing they could reduce agriculture-related emissions by up to 70% if widely adopted. Additionally, these methods can operate in urban centers, dramatically shortening supply chains and reducing food miles.
Bottom Line
The predicted 25% share of global food production from vertical farming and lab-grown sources by 2028 represents a paradigm shift in agriculture and food technology. This transition promises increased food security, reduced environmental impact, and new economic opportunities. However, it also presents challenges in terms of energy consumption, consumer acceptance, and regulatory frameworks. Business leaders and policymakers must prepare for this change by investing in research and development, updating regulations, and educating consumers. Those who successfully navigate this transition will be well-positioned to capitalize on what could be one of the most significant transformations in the global food system since the Green Revolution.